Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toninato wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toninato 48.8% vs Tavares 58.7% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Result
John Tavares favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Toninato
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Toninato
Tavares
Last 5: Toninato 1-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Toninato
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Toninato
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toninato
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (103)
59.2% (1,035)
-11.6%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
60.0% (310)
+40.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
42.9% (7)
-17.9%
On power play, Toninato has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Toninato is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Toninato shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Toninato
Tavares
Home
47.3% (55)
57.5% (668)
Away
48.1% (54)
61.1% (684)
By Period
Toninato
Tavares
P1
55.9%
58.0%
P2
51.6%
60.1%
P3
38.6%
61.0%
Final 5 min
40.9%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toninato
42.0%▼
46.5%
47.7%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 02:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |