Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.1% vs Tavares 52.4% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 54.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Thornton
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Thornton
Tavares
Last 6: Thornton 1-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Thornton
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Thornton
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Thornton
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (922)
52.1% (992)
+0.7%
Power Play
56.1% (196)
53.7% (294)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (100)
50.0% (22)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Thornton is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (913).
Thornton shoots left. Tavares is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (857).
Home / Away
Thornton
Tavares
Home
54.9% (597)
51.7% (679)
Away
54.0% (643)
53.4% (640)
By Period
Thornton
Tavares
P1
53.0%
52.2%
P2
51.2%
49.3%
P3
57.8%
56.3%
OT
72.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
59.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2010 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 2 | 10:15 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 1 | 10:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 1 | 06:43 | Neutral | John Tavares |