Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lehtera shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Lehtera 50.7% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 73.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 61.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 70.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Tavares
Lehtera
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Tavares
Lehtera
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Lehtera
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Lehtera
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Lehtera
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Tavares
Lehtera
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Lehtera
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
50.4% (2,714)
+3.6%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
55.8% (339)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
41.3% (104)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lehtera shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Lehtera is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,033).
Home / Away
Tavares
Lehtera
Home
56.1% (10,503)
53.7% (1,668)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
47.4% (1,489)
By Period
Tavares
Lehtera
P1
55.0%
53.2%
P2
54.1%
50.6%
P3
54.1%
48.1%
OT
55.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 08:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 2 | 18:06 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 18:16 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 14:38 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 04:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 1 | 17:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 1 | 03:33 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |