Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 52.8%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.4% vs Jokinen 52.1% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.8%
Defensive zone
Jokinen 65.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 55.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Tavares
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
Jokinen
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Jokinen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (992)
54.1% (196)
-2.0%
Power Play
53.7% (294)
55.7% (79)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
45.2% (42)
+4.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Tavares is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (857).
Tavares shoots left. Jokinen is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (221).
Home / Away
Tavares
Jokinen
Home
51.7% (679)
56.8% (169)
Away
53.4% (640)
48.3% (151)
By Period
Tavares
Jokinen
P1
52.2%
52.6%
P2
49.3%
60.6%
P3
56.3%
45.0%
OT
57.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.5%
Jokinen
44.0%▼
56.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2011 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 1 | 17:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Jussi Jokinen |