Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +22.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Ostlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Ostlund 36.5% (+22.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 91.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 90.7%
90.7%
9.3%
Tavares
Ostlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tavares
Ostlund
Last 7: Tavares 5-2 Ostlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Ostlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Ostlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Ostlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Ostlund
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
32.5% (283)
+21.5%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
11.1% (9)
+45.4%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
33.3% (3)
+17.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +45.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostlund shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Ostlund is 30.1% vs left-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Tavares
Ostlund
Home
56.1% (10,503)
37.0% (154)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
26.2% (141)
By Period
Tavares
Ostlund
P1
55.0%
34.6%
P2
54.1%
32.0%
P3
54.1%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
23.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Ostlund
46.0%▲
34.5%
31.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Noah Ostlund |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:27 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:11 | Offensive | Noah Ostlund |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 05:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |