Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 55.2%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Brown 54.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.3%
Defensive zone
Brown 82.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 50.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Tavares
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Tavares
Brown
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Brown
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
4
Tavares
Brown
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Brown
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
56.5% (726)
-2.5%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
62.5% (8)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
47.8% (136)
+2.8%
On power play, Brown has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Brown is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Home / Away
Tavares
Brown
Home
56.1% (10,503)
57.4% (364)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Tavares
Brown
P1
55.0%
51.4%
P2
54.1%
54.6%
P3
54.1%
58.8%
OT
55.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 02:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |