Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Aho 50.0% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 79.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 81.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Tavares
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Tavares
Aho
Last 9: Tavares 6-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Tavares
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
49.9% (851)
+8.1%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
53.5% (144)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
43.3% (60)
+14.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Tavares
Aho
Home
57.8% (614)
53.2% (554)
Away
57.8% (554)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Tavares
Aho
P1
58.0%
49.1%
P2
56.9%
50.8%
P3
58.4%
49.7%
OT
57.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
57.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |