Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Aho 54.9% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 52.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 66.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 54.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Tavares
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Tavares
Aho
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Tavares
Aho
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
4
Tavares
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
54.5% (870)
+3.2%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
62.4% (266)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
37.1% (62)
+19.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Tavares
Aho
Home
59.7% (610)
53.9% (603)
Away
57.0% (698)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Tavares
Aho
P1
57.2%
54.1%
P2
58.5%
55.0%
P3
59.4%
57.4%
OT
46.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |