Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Rask 50.1% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 16-13 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 68.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 58.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Tavares
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
13
(29 meetings)
16
13
Tavares
Rask
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
8
5
Tavares
Rask
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
5
Tavares
Rask
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rask
2
3
Tavares
Rask
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (15,885)
50.0% (4,428)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.5% (4,221)
54.3% (363)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (612)
35.2% (54)
+15.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,318).
Tavares shoots left. Rask is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,102).
Home / Away
Tavares
Rask
Home
56.1% (10,389)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
52.7% (10,358)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Tavares
Rask
P1
55.1%
50.7%
P2
54.1%
48.9%
P3
54.0%
50.7%
OT
56.0%
52.1%
Final 5 min
54.7%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2019 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2017 | 2 | 17:18 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 13, 2017 | 1 | 14:40 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Feb 4, 2017 | 3 | 08:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2017 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 3 | 03:17 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 13:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 03:08 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 00:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 13, 2016 | 3 | 06:49 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2015 | 3 | 13:50 | Offensive | Victor Rask |