Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Drury wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drury 57.6% vs Toews 60.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 60.4%
Defensive zone
Drury 82.6%
Neutral zone
Drury 60.3%
Result
Jack Drury favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Drury
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Drury
Toews
Last 5: Drury 1-4 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Drury
Toews
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Drury
Toews
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Drury
Toews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drury
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (659)
62.4% (692)
-1.6%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
59.3% (135)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (155)
46.9% (32)
+2.8%
On power play, Toews has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Drury is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Drury shoots left. Toews is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Home / Away
Drury
Toews
Home
59.2% (407)
60.9% (435)
Away
57.8% (417)
61.8% (424)
By Period
Drury
Toews
P1
59.1%
60.2%
P2
57.6%
65.7%
P3
58.8%
58.2%
OT
60.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.7%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drury
62.0%▲
55.5%
58.5%
Toews
62.0%▬
61.5%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Drury |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 08:09 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 07:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:05 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |