Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.7% vs 56.5%). Look for Draper on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Draper shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.3% vs Draper 54.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 80.7%
Defensive zone
Draper 70.2%
Neutral zone
Toews 54.7%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Toews
Draper
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Toews
Draper
Last 5: Toews 3-2 Draper
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Draper
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draper
1
2
Toews
Draper
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Draper
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (1,125)
52.6% (78)
+3.0%
Power Play
59.3% (312)
100.0% (2)
-40.7%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (204)
58.1% (86)
-0.7%
On power play, Draper has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draper shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,194).
Toews shoots left. Draper is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Toews
Draper
Home
59.8% (858)
62.0% (71)
Away
53.3% (795)
52.6% (97)
By Period
Toews
Draper
P1
58.7%
55.6%
P2
55.1%
58.3%
P3
56.5%
56.7%
OT
54.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
61.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.7%
Draper
62.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 15:23 | Defensive | Kris Draper |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 01:44 | Defensive | Kris Draper |
| Mar 28, 2011 | 1 | 05:17 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |