Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Draper on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Draper shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Draper 54.1% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 82.5%
Defensive zone
Draper 64.1%
Neutral zone
Toews 65.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Toews
Draper
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Toews
Draper
Last 5: Toews 3-2 Draper
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Draper
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draper
1
2
Toews
Draper
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Draper
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
52.6% (78)
+4.6%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
100.0% (2)
-36.7%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
58.1% (86)
-4.5%
On power play, Draper has a +36.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draper shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Toews shoots left. Draper is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Toews
Draper
Home
59.7% (9,192)
62.0% (71)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
52.6% (97)
By Period
Toews
Draper
P1
58.6%
55.6%
P2
57.8%
58.3%
P3
57.3%
56.7%
OT
58.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.2%
61.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Draper
62.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 15:23 | Defensive | Kris Draper |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 01:44 | Defensive | Kris Draper |
| Mar 28, 2011 | 1 | 05:17 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |