Jonathan Toews vs Michael McCarron
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs McCarron 52.5% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 96.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 58.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 88.8%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
Toews
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
McCarron
Last 5: Toews 4-1 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
McCarron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
McCarron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
53.1% (672)
+9.4%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
18.2% (11)
+41.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
53.7% (205)
-6.8%
On power play, Toews has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Toews shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Toews
McCarron
Home
60.9% (435)
52.8% (477)
Away
62.0% (434)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Toews
McCarron
P1
59.8%
56.5%
P2
65.7%
53.2%
P3
58.8%
49.0%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:40 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |