Jonathan Toews vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 72.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 75.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 72.1%
27.9%
72.1%
Toews
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Toews
MacKinnon
Last 8: Toews 3-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Toews
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Toews
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
49.7% (1,029)
+12.9%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
64.3% (154)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
34.4% (32)
+12.5%
On even strength, Toews has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Toews shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
Toews
MacKinnon
Home
61.1% (455)
53.1% (606)
Away
62.1% (448)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Toews
MacKinnon
P1
59.7%
49.4%
P2
66.7%
52.8%
P3
58.4%
50.8%
OT
80.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.7%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 01:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 06:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |