Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spaling on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.3% vs Spaling 50.8% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 60.5%
Defensive zone
Spaling 87.2%
Neutral zone
Spaling 66.0%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 73.3%
26.7%
73.3%
Toews
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Toews
Spaling
Last 8: Toews 3-5 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Spaling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
0
4
Toews
Spaling
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Spaling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (1,125)
51.6% (353)
+4.0%
Power Play
59.3% (312)
50.0% (8)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (204)
49.3% (136)
+8.1%
On power play, Toews has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,194).
Toews shoots left. Spaling is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Toews
Spaling
Home
59.8% (858)
49.2% (260)
Away
53.3% (795)
52.7% (237)
By Period
Toews
Spaling
P1
58.7%
55.2%
P2
55.1%
49.7%
P3
56.5%
47.7%
OT
54.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.7%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2011 | 2 | 02:27 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Jan 16, 2011 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 16, 2011 | 2 | 09:52 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Jan 16, 2011 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 3 | 12:20 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Jan 15, 2011 | 2 | 13:05 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 2 | 07:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |