Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Zacha 51.7% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 64.7%
Defensive zone
Zacha 86.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 79.1%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 82.7%
17.3%
82.7%
Toews
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Toews
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Toews
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Toews
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
53.3% (646)
+9.2%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
53.0% (100)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
38.9% (72)
+8.0%
On even strength, Toews has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Toews
Zacha
Home
60.9% (435)
51.7% (410)
Away
62.0% (434)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Toews
Zacha
P1
59.8%
57.7%
P2
65.7%
48.9%
P3
58.8%
50.2%
OT
80.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
58.3%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:33 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |