Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Thomas 51.7% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 56.4%
Defensive zone
Thomas 62.6%
Neutral zone
Thomas 57.3%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Toews
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Toews
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Toews
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
50.1% (615)
+12.4%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
62.2% (98)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
52.6% (114)
-5.7%
On even strength, Toews has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Toews shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Toews
Thomas
Home
60.9% (435)
51.9% (374)
Away
62.0% (434)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Toews
Thomas
P1
59.8%
49.2%
P2
65.7%
55.3%
P3
58.8%
50.6%
OT
80.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
58.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |