Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Couturier 53.2% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 95.0%
Defensive zone
Toews 57.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 90.2%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Toews
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toews
Couturier
Last 6: Toews 5-1 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Couturier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
53.4% (758)
+9.1%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
62.9% (70)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
50.7% (227)
-3.8%
On even strength, Toews has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Toews
Couturier
Home
60.9% (435)
50.7% (517)
Away
62.0% (434)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Toews
Couturier
P1
59.8%
55.2%
P2
65.7%
53.0%
P3
58.8%
53.3%
OT
80.0%
42.4%
Final 5 min
58.3%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:40 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |