Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.2% vs Smith 46.2% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 91.9%
Defensive zone
Toews 62.6%
Neutral zone
Toews 89.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Toews
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Toews
Smith
Last 7: Toews 5-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Toews
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (1,229)
44.7% (190)
+10.2%
Power Play
62.7% (354)
40.0% (10)
+22.7%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (92)
45.2% (31)
+9.1%
On power play, Toews has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Toews is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,050).
Toews shoots left. Smith is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Toews
Smith
Home
57.6% (838)
46.8% (111)
Away
55.4% (837)
42.5% (120)
By Period
Toews
Smith
P1
58.0%
44.6%
P2
54.4%
43.6%
P3
56.7%
46.2%
OT
64.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.5%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2014 | 3 | 02:33 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2 | 08:23 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2 | 00:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |