Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 54.6% vs Smith 51.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 66.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 65.8%
Neutral zone
Smith 65.4%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Toews
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Toews
Smith
Last 8: Toews 3-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Toews
Smith
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
3
Toews
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (1,153)
53.5% (430)
+1.3%
Power Play
58.8% (233)
47.7% (65)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (166)
49.1% (114)
+0.9%
On power play, Toews has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Toews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Toews shoots left. Smith is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Toews
Smith
Home
58.7% (784)
54.0% (298)
Away
51.0% (768)
50.2% (311)
By Period
Toews
Smith
P1
54.0%
55.4%
P2
57.4%
45.9%
P3
52.6%
54.6%
OT
64.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
54.9%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 13:40 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 04:59 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |