Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.5% vs Smith 48.2% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 78.8%
Defensive zone
Smith 78.6%
Neutral zone
Smith 83.4%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 81.5%
18.5%
81.5%
Toews
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Toews
Smith
Last 5: Toews 1-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Toews
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Toews
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (1,115)
49.7% (485)
+8.7%
Power Play
61.3% (256)
46.8% (47)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (182)
38.6% (88)
+11.9%
On power play, Toews has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Toews is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,035).
Toews shoots left. Smith is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Toews
Smith
Home
59.5% (783)
48.7% (310)
Away
56.4% (770)
47.1% (310)
By Period
Toews
Smith
P1
58.4%
45.8%
P2
59.4%
47.4%
P3
55.9%
50.5%
OT
61.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
58.0%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 12:09 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 2 | 05:55 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 1 | 18:51 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 1 | 15:31 | Neutral | Zack Smith |