Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Minten on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.5% vs Staal 54.6% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 67.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 91.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 77.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 75.7%
24.3%
75.7%
Minten
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Minten
Staal
Last 9: Minten 8-1 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Minten
3
0
Minten
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Minten
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
5
0
Minten
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (603)
56.1% (955)
-6.5%
Power Play
45.8% (48)
66.9% (142)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (43)
43.0% (242)
-10.4%
On power play, Staal has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Minten is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Minten shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Minten
Staal
Home
51.6% (322)
55.4% (663)
Away
45.4% (372)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Minten
Staal
P1
44.9%
55.1%
P2
46.6%
54.7%
P3
52.1%
53.9%
OT
83.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:21 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:01 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |