Scouting Report
Erik Christensen holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Christensen wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Christensen 52.0% vs Bailey 44.6% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Christensen 56.9%
Defensive zone
Bailey 71.9%
Neutral zone
Bailey 56.5%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Christensen
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Christensen
Bailey
Last 5: Christensen 2-3 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Christensen
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
2
Christensen
Bailey
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Christensen
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (255)
44.2% (579)
+6.4%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
52.5% (40)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (3)
39.8% (108)
+60.2%
On penalty kill, Christensen has a +60.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Christensen is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Christensen shoots left. Bailey is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Christensen
Bailey
Home
57.8% (173)
45.9% (375)
Away
45.7% (129)
41.8% (361)
By Period
Christensen
Bailey
P1
49.6%
47.3%
P2
54.2%
40.4%
P3
53.7%
43.3%
OT
75.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
52.5%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Christensen
48.0%▼
51.5%
52.6%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2011 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Erik Christensen |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 3 | 03:47 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 2 | 06:23 | Neutral | Erik Christensen |