Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs McLeod 58.0% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 65.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 87.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 75.7%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Bailey
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Bailey
McLeod
Last 7: Bailey 4-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
0
Bailey
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Bailey
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
59.2% (2,894)
-13.4%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
57.4% (101)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
53.5% (525)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Bailey shoots left. McLeod is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,457).
Home / Away
Bailey
McLeod
Home
46.6% (1,353)
58.2% (1,647)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
58.4% (1,873)
By Period
Bailey
McLeod
P1
46.5%
58.7%
P2
44.8%
59.9%
P3
44.4%
56.3%
OT
51.1%
63.6%
Final 5 min
43.6%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 00:53 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 11:10 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 1 | 12:12 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |