Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 49.2%). Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 50.0% vs Zibanejad 49.2% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 65.8%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 63.4%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 51.9%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Bailey
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Bailey
Zibanejad
Last 8: Bailey 4-4 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Zibanejad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Bailey
Zibanejad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (189)
48.9% (809)
+1.9%
Power Play
52.8% (53)
53.4% (204)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
45.5% (191)
-16.9%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Bailey is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Bailey shoots left. Zibanejad is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Home / Away
Bailey
Zibanejad
Home
55.2% (145)
49.8% (588)
Away
43.2% (111)
48.5% (616)
By Period
Bailey
Zibanejad
P1
42.4%
47.4%
P2
52.2%
50.7%
P3
56.9%
49.0%
OT
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
45.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
50.0%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 02:19 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 13:36 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 14:31 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 13, 2020 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 13, 2020 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 13, 2020 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 13, 2020 | 1 | 03:04 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |