Scouting Report
Mike Rupp holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Rupp shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.2% vs Rupp 50.4% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rupp 82.3%
Defensive zone
Rupp 75.9%
Neutral zone
Rupp 78.0%
Result
Mike Rupp favored at 80.2%
19.8%
80.2%
Bailey
Rupp
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Bailey
Rupp
Last 5: Bailey 4-1 Rupp
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Rupp
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
0
Bailey
Rupp
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
0
Bailey
Rupp
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Rupp
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (441)
51.2% (123)
-7.0%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
48.6% (35)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (84)
33.3% (3)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rupp shoots left. Bailey is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Bailey shoots left. Rupp is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Home / Away
Bailey
Rupp
Home
43.1% (295)
41.2% (85)
Away
45.6% (320)
61.0% (77)
By Period
Bailey
Rupp
P1
46.5%
43.9%
P2
45.7%
59.0%
P3
41.3%
47.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
62.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
44.4%
Rupp
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2011 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Mike Rupp |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 1 | 13:26 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 3 | 03:23 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |