Scouting Report
Mike Rupp holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Rupp shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Rupp 51.2% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rupp 59.6%
Defensive zone
Rupp 63.4%
Neutral zone
Rupp 65.3%
Result
Mike Rupp favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Bailey
Rupp
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Bailey
Rupp
Last 7: Bailey 4-3 Rupp
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Rupp
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rupp
1
2
Bailey
Rupp
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
0
Bailey
Rupp
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Rupp
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
52.4% (187)
-6.6%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
48.6% (35)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
33.3% (3)
+6.6%
On even strength, Rupp has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rupp shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Rupp is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Bailey
Rupp
Home
46.6% (1,353)
45.7% (127)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
59.6% (99)
By Period
Bailey
Rupp
P1
46.5%
44.8%
P2
44.8%
59.8%
P3
44.4%
50.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
58.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Rupp
56.0%▲
49.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2011 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Mike Rupp |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 1 | 13:35 | Defensive | Mike Rupp |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Mike Rupp |
| Feb 11, 2011 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 1 | 13:26 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 3 | 03:23 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |