Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Elias 42.7% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Elias leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Elias 52.0%
Defensive zone
Elias 50.5%
Neutral zone
Elias 50.6%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Bailey
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Bailey
Elias
Last 10: Bailey 6-4 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Elias
3
5
Bailey
Elias
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Bailey
Elias
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
4
2
Bailey
Elias
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
42.3% (2,591)
+3.5%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
48.4% (405)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
36.0% (367)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. Elias is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,229).
Home / Away
Bailey
Elias
Home
46.6% (1,353)
43.2% (1,683)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
41.7% (1,725)
By Period
Bailey
Elias
P1
46.5%
41.1%
P2
44.8%
43.1%
P3
44.4%
43.0%
OT
51.1%
43.2%
Final 5 min
43.6%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 1 | 17:40 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 1 | 06:08 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 16, 2013 | 3 | 11:07 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 3 | 08:48 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 08:51 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 4, 2012 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 4, 2012 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 4, 2012 | 1 | 14:41 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 18:16 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 12:35 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 09:40 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |