Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Bailey wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 44.6% vs Connolly 48.9% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 76.4%
Defensive zone
Bailey 71.8%
Neutral zone
Bailey 75.0%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Bailey
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
13
(17 meetings)
4
13
Bailey
Connolly
Last 10: Bailey 4-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
2
Bailey
Connolly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
4
Bailey
Connolly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
7
Bailey
Connolly
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (579)
47.8% (605)
-3.6%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
51.2% (86)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (108)
55.1% (89)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Bailey is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (230).
Bailey shoots left. Connolly is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
Bailey
Connolly
Home
45.9% (375)
51.1% (358)
Away
41.8% (361)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Bailey
Connolly
P1
47.3%
48.7%
P2
40.4%
48.1%
P3
43.3%
50.4%
OT
63.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.6%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 3 | 13:19 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 2 | 13:44 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 2 | 05:32 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |