Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Bailey wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Connolly 47.3% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 15-6 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 62.3%
Defensive zone
Bailey 62.6%
Neutral zone
Bailey 63.3%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Bailey
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
15
(21 meetings)
6
15
Bailey
Connolly
Last 10: Bailey 4-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
2
Bailey
Connolly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
6
Bailey
Connolly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
4
7
Bailey
Connolly
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
47.4% (1,307)
-1.6%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
50.2% (251)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
41.9% (186)
-2.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Bailey shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Bailey
Connolly
Home
46.6% (1,353)
48.5% (870)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Bailey
Connolly
P1
46.5%
47.4%
P2
44.8%
47.7%
P3
44.4%
47.0%
OT
51.1%
37.8%
Final 5 min
43.6%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 3 | 13:19 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 2 | 13:44 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 2 | 05:32 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 13, 2011 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |