Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Bailey wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Bozak 53.4% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Bailey leads 21-14 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Bozak 79.8%
Defensive zone
Bozak 85.4%
Neutral zone
Bozak 85.1%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 83.2%
16.8%
83.2%
Bailey
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
14
(35 meetings)
21
14
Bailey
Bozak
Last 10: Bailey 7-3 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
8
5
Bailey
Bozak
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
7
3
Bailey
Bozak
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Bailey
Bozak
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
53.7% (9,596)
-7.9%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
55.2% (1,990)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
48.0% (1,094)
-8.1%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Bailey shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Bailey
Bozak
Home
46.6% (1,353)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Bailey
Bozak
P1
46.5%
53.2%
P2
44.8%
52.8%
P3
44.4%
54.5%
OT
51.1%
52.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 08:13 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 10:49 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 05:33 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 08:42 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 18, 2013 | 3 | 19:33 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 15:06 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 09:02 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |