Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.6% vs 48.7%). Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Bailey wins 43.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 49.7% vs Bozak 48.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Bailey leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 53.1%
Defensive zone
Bozak 50.6%
Neutral zone
Bozak 53.7%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Bailey
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Bailey
Bozak
Last 10: Bailey 6-4 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
4
2
Bailey
Bozak
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Bailey
Bozak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (170)
48.8% (1,036)
+0.0%
Power Play
56.4% (39)
53.8% (225)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
39.1% (138)
+3.0%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Bailey is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (87).
Bailey shoots left. Bozak is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (916).
Home / Away
Bailey
Bozak
Home
51.3% (156)
50.8% (608)
Away
45.8% (72)
47.0% (791)
By Period
Bailey
Bozak
P1
50.0%
48.0%
P2
45.6%
48.1%
P3
52.9%
49.8%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
49.6%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 10:49 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 05:33 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 08:42 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |