Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Doan wins 27.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Doan 44.1% vs Carrick 52.1% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Doan 91.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 54.9%
Neutral zone
Doan 72.3%
Result
Josh Doan favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Doan
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Doan
Carrick
Last 7: Doan 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Doan
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Doan
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Doan
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Doan
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (93)
52.1% (2,513)
-13.4%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
61.3% (75)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
50.7% (430)
-50.7%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +50.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Doan is 27.0% vs right-shot opponents (37).
Doan shoots right. Carrick is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Doan
Carrick
Home
30.4% (56)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
47.4% (57)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Doan
Carrick
P1
37.5%
51.8%
P2
47.5%
52.2%
P3
28.0%
52.4%
Final 5 min
25.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Doan
40.0%▬
38.9%
38.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:17 | Offensive | Josh Doan |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:31 | Defensive | Josh Doan |