Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs McLeod 52.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 55.9%
Defensive zone
McLeod 59.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 60.7%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Norris
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Norris
McLeod
Last 5: Norris 1-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Norris
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Norris
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Norris
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
52.9% (904)
+0.7%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
57.6% (59)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
49.0% (241)
+4.1%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Norris shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Norris
McLeod
Home
53.6% (373)
51.8% (612)
Away
54.1% (394)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Norris
McLeod
P1
61.8%
55.4%
P2
51.7%
50.8%
P3
49.8%
51.6%
OT
27.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:41 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:27 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |