Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Danforth on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 49.8% vs Paul 52.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Danforth leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 79.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 58.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 66.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 65.7%
34.3%
65.7%
Danforth
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
4
(18 meetings)
14
4
Danforth
Paul
Last 10: Danforth 8-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
4
0
Danforth
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
5
3
Danforth
Paul
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
5
1
Danforth
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (1,018)
52.5% (3,796)
-0.7%
Power Play
50.0% (36)
56.5% (480)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (207)
46.7% (574)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Danforth is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (937).
Danforth shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Home / Away
Danforth
Paul
Home
51.4% (619)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
48.3% (642)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Danforth
Paul
P1
49.1%
53.9%
P2
51.4%
51.0%
P3
48.3%
52.0%
OT
64.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:44 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:52 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:29 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:17 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:12 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 01:51 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |