Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Danforth wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Smith shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 49.5% vs Smith 41.4% (+13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 59.9%
Defensive zone
Danforth 89.2%
Neutral zone
Danforth 63.0%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Danforth
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Danforth
Smith
Last 5: Danforth 3-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
0
Danforth
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
0
Danforth
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Danforth
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (546)
33.3% (153)
+17.2%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
56.5% (23)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (101)
50.0% (2)
-6.4%
On even strength, Danforth has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots right. Danforth is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Danforth shoots right. Smith is 32.7% vs right-shot opponents (49).
Home / Away
Danforth
Smith
Home
51.1% (315)
35.1% (111)
Away
48.0% (346)
38.8% (67)
By Period
Danforth
Smith
P1
49.5%
41.5%
P2
51.4%
32.8%
P3
46.6%
33.3%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.4%
36.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.5%
Smith
36.0%▬
36.0%
36.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 03:49 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Will Smith |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Will Smith |