Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs Kasper 46.8% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 58.1%
Defensive zone
Dowling 62.1%
Neutral zone
Dowling 62.2%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Dowling
Kasper
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Dowling
Kasper
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowling
Kasper
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
4
1
Dowling
Kasper
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Kasper
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
47.0% (944)
+2.4%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
46.9% (32)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
30.6% (36)
+2.7%
On power play, Kasper has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kasper shoots left. Dowling is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Dowling shoots left. Kasper is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (671).
Home / Away
Dowling
Kasper
Home
48.2% (301)
49.1% (464)
Away
49.2% (392)
44.2% (548)
By Period
Dowling
Kasper
P1
47.6%
47.8%
P2
50.4%
51.0%
P3
48.3%
39.9%
Final 5 min
52.2%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |