Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.7% vs Kasper 45.6% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 61.8%
Defensive zone
Dowling 68.0%
Neutral zone
Dowling 55.8%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Dowling
Kasper
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Dowling
Kasper
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowling
Kasper
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
4
1
Dowling
Kasper
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Kasper
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (318)
45.1% (586)
+3.6%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
52.2% (23)
-32.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
29.4% (17)
+20.6%
On power play, Kasper has a +32.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kasper shoots left. Dowling is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Dowling shoots left. Kasper is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (411).
Home / Away
Dowling
Kasper
Home
49.0% (145)
47.9% (280)
Away
47.8% (182)
42.5% (346)
By Period
Dowling
Kasper
P1
48.1%
45.8%
P2
49.1%
50.0%
P3
47.8%
38.4%
Final 5 min
51.5%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:00 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |