Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.7% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 51.7%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 69.9%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 68.0%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Dowling
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dowling
Zibanejad
Last 8: Dowling 5-3 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
1
0
Dowling
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowling
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
3
2
Dowling
Zibanejad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (318)
52.9% (870)
-4.2%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
53.5% (43)
-33.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
46.2% (143)
+3.8%
On power play, Zibanejad has a +33.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Dowling is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Dowling shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Dowling
Zibanejad
Home
49.0% (145)
55.1% (501)
Away
47.8% (182)
49.2% (555)
By Period
Dowling
Zibanejad
P1
48.1%
57.5%
P2
49.1%
50.7%
P3
47.8%
47.9%
Final 5 min
51.5%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 17:11 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 04:16 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |