Justin Dowling vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 54.5%
Defensive zone
Dowling 55.6%
Neutral zone
Dowling 56.2%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Dowling
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Dowling
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Dowling
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
56.2% (15,103)
-6.8%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
58.7% (3,395)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
51.6% (2,769)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dowling is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Dowling shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Dowling
O'Reilly
Home
48.2% (301)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
49.2% (392)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Dowling
O'Reilly
P1
47.6%
55.5%
P2
50.4%
57.0%
P3
48.3%
55.2%
Final 5 min
52.2%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |