Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dowling wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs Wright 43.3% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Wright leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Wright 64.0%
Defensive zone
Wright 52.9%
Neutral zone
Wright 54.5%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Dowling
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Dowling
Wright
Last 10: Dowling 5-5 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
1
4
Dowling
Wright
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
2
1
Dowling
Wright
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
2
0
Dowling
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
42.6% (1,318)
+6.8%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
45.8% (131)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
33.3% (6)
+0.0%
On even strength, Dowling has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Dowling is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Dowling shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
Dowling
Wright
Home
48.2% (301)
44.2% (746)
Away
49.2% (392)
41.5% (709)
By Period
Dowling
Wright
P1
47.6%
44.4%
P2
50.4%
40.7%
P3
48.3%
44.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |