Justin Hryckowian vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Justin Hryckowian holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hryckowian 55.0% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 82.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 81.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 77.7%
22.3%
77.7%
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
Last 8: Hryckowian 1-7 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
59.9% (222)
46.1% (11,218)
+13.8%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
53.3% (1,412)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
32.1% (28)
42.8% (502)
-10.7%
On even strength, Hryckowian has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hryckowian is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (128).
Hryckowian shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
Home
59.0% (139)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
54.6% (119)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
P1
48.6%
47.4%
P2
67.0%
46.6%
P3
51.4%
46.1%
OT
0.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
55.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hryckowian
54.0%▼
56.5%
57.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 19:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Justin Hryckowian |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |