Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Eller 50.5% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 74.4%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 76.4%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 74.7%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Sourdif
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Sourdif
Eller
Last 5: Sourdif 1-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Sourdif
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Sourdif
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Sourdif
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
51.1% (10,296)
-6.5%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
52.8% (621)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
46.7% (1,751)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Sourdif shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Eller
Home
43.6% (321)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
47.1% (272)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Sourdif
Eller
P1
43.1%
51.2%
P2
43.9%
50.1%
P3
48.6%
50.2%
OT
100.0%
56.7%
Final 5 min
44.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Lars Eller |