Scouting Report
Oliver Kapanen holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Kapanen 47.8% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 72.8%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 52.2%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 72.2%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
Sourdif
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Sourdif
Kapanen
Last 6: Sourdif 4-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Kapanen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
0
Sourdif
Kapanen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
2
Sourdif
Kapanen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
47.5% (514)
-2.9%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
55.0% (40)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
39.5% (38)
+22.0%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Sourdif is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Sourdif shoots right. Kapanen is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Kapanen
Home
43.6% (321)
47.9% (307)
Away
47.1% (272)
47.0% (285)
By Period
Sourdif
Kapanen
P1
43.1%
42.7%
P2
43.9%
51.4%
P3
48.6%
48.4%
OT
100.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
44.5%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |