Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.5%). Look for Sourdif on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Strome 44.6% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 63.4%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 57.6%
Neutral zone
Strome 55.8%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Sourdif
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Sourdif
Strome
Last 5: Sourdif 2-3 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
0
2
Sourdif
Strome
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
1
Sourdif
Strome
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
44.1% (6,839)
+0.5%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
49.3% (854)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
41.5% (410)
+20.0%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Sourdif is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Sourdif shoots right. Strome is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (2,377).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Strome
Home
43.6% (321)
44.4% (4,046)
Away
47.1% (272)
44.7% (4,057)
By Period
Sourdif
Strome
P1
43.1%
44.0%
P2
43.9%
45.3%
P3
48.6%
44.3%
OT
100.0%
46.3%
Final 5 min
44.5%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 10:52 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 04:23 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 04:16 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |