Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Aho 50.0% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Sourdif 70.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 88.2%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 72.8%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 73.8%
73.8%
26.2%
Sourdif
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Sourdif
Aho
Last 10: Sourdif 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
5
Sourdif
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sourdif
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Sourdif
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
49.9% (851)
-5.3%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
53.5% (144)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
43.3% (60)
+18.2%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Sourdif shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Aho
Home
43.6% (321)
53.2% (554)
Away
47.1% (272)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Sourdif
Aho
P1
43.1%
49.1%
P2
43.9%
50.8%
P3
48.6%
49.7%
OT
100.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
44.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 06:36 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:09 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |