Justin Sourdif vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 47.1% vs Aho 51.3% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Sourdif 77.8%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 92.1%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 78.3%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Sourdif
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Sourdif
Aho
Last 10: Sourdif 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
5
Sourdif
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sourdif
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Sourdif
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (432)
50.1% (6,415)
-4.3%
Power Play
52.6% (19)
59.1% (1,297)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
46.0% (446)
+14.0%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Sourdif is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Sourdif shoots right. Aho is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,013).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Aho
Home
45.5% (235)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
47.3% (226)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
Sourdif
Aho
P1
46.4%
51.2%
P2
41.4%
52.1%
P3
52.5%
50.8%
OT
100.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
46.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
44.0%▲
42.0%
46.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 06:36 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 03:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:09 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |