Scouting Report
Shane Pinto holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Sourdif wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Pinto 50.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pinto 63.2%
Defensive zone
Pinto 75.6%
Neutral zone
Pinto 76.1%
Result
Shane Pinto favored at 74.4%
25.6%
74.4%
Sourdif
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sourdif
Pinto
Last 8: Sourdif 5-3 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Pinto
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
1
Sourdif
Pinto
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
4
2
Sourdif
Pinto
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
50.6% (2,716)
-6.0%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
54.4% (90)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
44.9% (234)
+16.6%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Sourdif is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Sourdif shoots right. Pinto is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Pinto
Home
43.6% (321)
50.9% (1,501)
Away
47.1% (272)
49.6% (1,539)
By Period
Sourdif
Pinto
P1
43.1%
48.3%
P2
43.9%
51.7%
P3
48.6%
50.9%
OT
100.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
44.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:13 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:04 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:27 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |