Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Johnson wins 26.5% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnson 36.9% vs Cates 43.2% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnson 85.1%
Defensive zone
Johnson 54.8%
Neutral zone
Johnson 65.5%
Result
Kent Johnson favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Johnson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Johnson
Cates
Last 10: Johnson 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
2
0
Johnson
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Johnson
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
5
Johnson
Cates
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
28.3% (152)
44.1% (2,742)
-15.8%
Power Play
37.5% (16)
43.0% (242)
-5.5%
On even strength, Cates has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Johnson is 26.5% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Johnson shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Johnson
Cates
Home
26.1% (69)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
31.3% (99)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Johnson
Cates
P1
20.4%
44.5%
P2
33.3%
43.5%
P3
33.9%
41.2%
OT
0.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
30.2%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnson
36.0%▲
29.2%
29.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:25 | Neutral | Kent Johnson |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 11:41 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Kent Johnson |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:18 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kent Johnson |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 18:00 | Offensive | Kent Johnson |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |