Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 49.4%). Brassard wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 50.0% vs Hayes 49.5% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 73.6%
Defensive zone
Brassard 69.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 50.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Brassard
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Brassard
Hayes
Last 8: Brassard 3-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Brassard
Hayes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Brassard
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Brassard
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (230)
48.5% (557)
+1.1%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
53.3% (107)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (30)
58.3% (12)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Brassard is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (167).
Brassard shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Brassard
Hayes
Home
51.7% (143)
50.8% (313)
Away
48.3% (143)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Brassard
Hayes
P1
46.4%
52.3%
P2
50.6%
47.7%
P3
53.9%
48.4%
Final 5 min
56.9%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
50.0%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 02:15 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 10:17 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |